Election Interpretations

Here is a link to the blog that I showed in class the other day. Please make sure to take a look at the entries, "Did Controversial Roll Call Votes Doom the Democrats?", "How Much Did the Tea Party Help GOP Candidates?", and "The Forecasts and the Outcome."

See you all in class.

Election Day

True to form, we have a national media outlet analyzing whether House Dems are receiving an electoral benefit or punishment for voting against their party leaders. The link is here. Of course, what they fail to take into account is that these House Democrats would be in competitive reelection races regardless of how they voted on Health Care Reform -- or even if Health Care Reform had not even been on the agenda. Keep that in mind as you follow the election pundits who claim that Health Care--or really any specific issue (except for maybe the economy)--is responsible for the inevitable Democratic losses.

Election Eve

Three things are certain to happen tomorrow:

First, the GOP will make gains in the House. Second, the GOP will make gains the Senate. Third, the GOP will make gains in partisan control of governorships. The uncertainty, then, is how large the gains will be for the Republican Party.

I've compiled a few links for you to take a look at through the course of the day before the polls close. As usual, you should also check the major news outlets for Election Day campaign coverage.

As the results come in tomorrow night, check out this post to determine how big the gains are likely to be for the Republicans. Fivethirtyeight developed a ranking for each congressional district to indicate how big the gains for the GOP will be based on the election results in that district. For example, the table indicates that if TX-23 congressional district switches from Democrat Ciro Rodriguez to Republican Francisco Canseco, the Republicans will be winning a gain of roughly 54 seats. Another example would be that the table indicates that if the Republican wins in Hawaii's First congressional district, the Republicans would be expected to make a gain of at least 68 seats. On the other hand, if the Democrat Salazar can manage to hang on in Colorado's Third congressional district, the Republicans will have trouble winning more than 29 seats in the House. In other words, from the blog:

"What you should be looking for is whether Republicans are consistently winning seats with magic numbers in the 60s, 70s, 80s or higher. If so, they could be in for a very big night. Conversely, if Democrats are holding onto seats with magic numbers in the teens, 20s, or 30s, that means they are overperforming their forecasts and could hold the House."


The magic number appears in the bottom left-hand corner of the tables.

The exams are graded and will be returned in class on Wednesday.

I'll be posting other interesting election information. From today's class, here is a link to Intrade: http://www.intrade.com/ and a link to Gallup's generic ballot information: http://www.gallup.com/poll/144125/Republicans-Appear-Poised-Win-Big-Tuesday.aspx

For those of you volunteering on campaigns, best of luck tomorrow. The rest of us will have to wait to see how it all plays out.

This Week's Schedule

Wednesday: Review for Exam Two. Bring questions to class.

Friday: Exam Two in class.

Papers due in Class Wednesday

This is a reminder that papers are due in class on Wednesday. The expectations for the papers are available here and the course syllabus discusses the papers as well; it is available here. Do not forget to include boldface headings that separate out each section. This will allow me to determine how you are applying your congressional election to the theories and concepts discussed in class.

I'm sure some of you are finished, some of you are revising and editing, and some of you are starting. As you are in these various stages of completion, keep in mind that you should state explicitly how the findings you have about your congressional election relate back to the theories and concepts from the class.

Best of luck with the writing and feel free to email me any questions.

Money in the Midterms

The New York Times article and graphic I discussed in class on Friday is available here.

Also, do not forget that the paper is due in class on Wednesday. The requirements for the paper are in a document posted to the course blog a few weeks ago.

See you in class on Monday.

Organizational Success and Organizational Failure

I hope you all had a great weekend!

This week's reading focuses on campaign organizations. What do most of us know about campaign organizations? Unfortunately, not too much. The media, of course, is willing to share their thoughts about good and bad campaigns. Here and here are two articles from the 2008 presidential campaign that focus on the shortcomings of the McCain campaign and the successes of the Obama campaign.

While these articles offer some insights as to how the organizations work and how principals actors within the organizations perceived their successes and failures, what more can be said about the McCain and Obama campaigns? Think critically about what else was occurring in the strategic context that allowed the media to portray the Obama campaign as innovative, strategic, and successful, while at the same time portraying the McCain campaign as being in disarray. In particular, I want you to consider which approach is more likely to describe the dynamics of campaign organizations:

1. Campaign organizations --> political outcomes
In this approach, the strategic moves by campaign organizations influence voters, the media, etc., and ultimately lead to political outcomes. How would we see evidence of this?
OR...
2. Political outcomes --> Campaign organizations
In this approach, the political context influences the decisions campaigns make about their organizational structure, strategy, and tactics. How would we see evidence of this?

I will have the exams back to you at some point this week. See you in class.